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Revised Economic Outlook For Fiscal 2001 and 2002: September 2001

Summary

1. Current Situation: Japanese Economy Contines to Rapidly Lose Stream

2. Outlook for Fiscal 2001-2002

1. 0.1% Growth Expected for Fiscal 2001 as Signs of Recovery Emerge in the Latter Half

2. 1.7% Growth Expected for Fiscal 2002; Recovery Driven by Domestic Demand Will Slow in the Second Half

3. Outlook for Demand by Category

1. The following assumptions have been made in this outlook.

1. World Economy

2. Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate: 120 yen in Fiscal 2001, 112 yen in Fiscal 2002

3. WTI Crude Oil Prices: $27.60 in Fiscal 2001, $28.10 in Fiscal 2002

4. Fiscal Policy

5. Monetary Policy

2. Trends in Demand by Category

1. Corporate Recovery to Begin in the Latter Half of Fiscal 2001

2. Increasing Signs of Sustained Recovery Expected in Private Consumption as End of Fiscal 2002 Approaches

3. No Support Likely from Public-works Investment

4. The Role of Foreign Demand in Recovery

5. Continuing Deflationary Pressures

4. In Conclusion: What will be the Economic Effect of the Terrorist Attacks on the United States?

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