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Economic Outlook For Fiscal 2002

Summary

1. Current State of the Japanese Economy

2. Outlook for Fiscal 2001 and Fiscal 2002

1. Negative Growth of 0.6% in Fiscal 2001: Production to Stop Declining in the Second Half

2. Outlook for Growth of 0.4% in Fiscal 2002: Gradual Recovery Led by External Demand

3. Outlook for Demand by Category

1. Assumptions Underlying the Forecasts.

1. World Economy

2. Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate:¥122.9 in Fiscal 2001,¥117.5 in Fiscal 2002

3. WTI Crude Oil Prices:$20.3/Barrel in the Second Half of Fiscal 2001,$22.3 in Fiscal 2002

4. Government Fiscal Policy

5. Monetary Policy

2. Trends in Demand by Category

1. The Corporate Sector to Begin to Recover in Spring 2002.

2. Household Sector to Show Greater Recovery Momentum in Fiscal 2002

3. Public Works Investment

4. External Demand

5. Deflationary Pressures to Continue

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