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Forecast for the Japanese Economy in Fiscal 2002: March 2002

Summary

1. Current State of the Japanese Economy

2. Outlook for Fiscal 2002 (Real GDP: +0.4%; Nominal GDP: -1.0%)

3. Outlook for Components of Final Demand

1. Assumptions Underlying the Forecasts

1. World Economy

2. Exchange Rates

3. Crude Oil Prices (West Texas Intermediate (WTI))

4. Government Fiscal Policy

5. Monetary Policy

2. Trends in Demand by Category

1. Corporate Sector to Begin to Recover in 2002

2. Household Sector to Show Gradual Recovery Momentum in Fiscal 2002

3. Public Works Investment to Show Further Decline

4. Contribution of External Demand to Turn Positive as Exports Expand

5. Deflationary Pressures Expected to Weaken

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