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Forecast for the Japanese Economy In Fiscal 2002 and Fiscal 2003: July 2002

Summary

1. Current State of the Japanese Economy

2. Outlook for Fiscal 2002 and Fiscal 2003

1. Outlook for Fiscal 2002: Real Growth of 0.4% and Nominal Growth of -0.3%

2. Outlook for Fiscal 2003: Real Growth of 1.5% and Nominal Growth of 1.0%--Continued Recovery but Possibility of a Slowdown in the Second Half

3. Outlook for Components of Final Demand

1. Assumptions Underlying the Forecasts

1. World Economy

2. Exchange Rates: Fiscal 2002-\121.6 ; Fiscal 2003-\120.0

3. Crude Oil Prices (WTI, following month forward price): Fiscal 2002--$25.3/barrel; Fiscal 2003--$26.1/barrel

4. Government Fiscal Policy

5. Monetary Policy

2. Trends in Demand by Category

1. Contribution of the External Sector to Become Positive owing to the Rise in Exports

2. The Corporate Sector to Remain Strong but Weaken in the Latter Half of Fiscal 2003

3. Recovery Momentum in the Household Sector to Strengthen Gradually

4. Continued Declining Trend in Public Investment

5. Easing of Deflationary Pressures

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