Home > Publications > Forecast for the Japanese Economy >

Revised Forecast for the Japanese Economy In Fiscal 2004: February 2004

Summary

1. Current State of the Japanese Economy and Outlook for Fiscal 2004

1. Current State of the Japanese Economy

2. Issues Considered in Preparing the Economic Outlook

a. The World Economy and Trends in High-Tech Demand

b. Recovery to Spread from Large to Small and Medium-Sized Companies and from the Corporate to the Individual Sector

c. Environment Influencing Corporate Profitability

3. Dangers of Ending Deflation Too Quickly

2. Outlook for the Economy in Fiscal 2004

1. Assumptions Underlying the Forecast

a. World Economy

b. Exchange Rates

c. Crude Oil Prices

d. Government Fiscal Policy

e. Monetary Policy

2. Economic Outlook for Fiscal 2004: Third Consecutive Year of Positive Growth, Movement into Adjustment Phase in the Second Half

3. Outlook by Demand Component

a. External Demand: The contribution of external demand will continue to be positive in the first half of fiscal 2004 but will have a negative influence in the latter half of fiscal 2004.

b. Corporate Sector: This sector will remain strong but reach a peak during fiscal 2004.

c. Employment and Income Environments: Major improvement is not expected, but the individual sector will show slight increases.

d. Government Spending: The decline in government public investment spending will continue, but government consumption expenditures will continue to make a positive contribution.

e. Prices: Deflationary pressures to persist

Full Text