1. Current State of the Japanese Economy and Outlook for Fiscal 2004

Current State of the Japanese Economy
Issues Considered in Preparing the Economic Outlook
a. The World Economy and Trends in High-Tech Demand
b. Recovery to Spread from Large to Small and Medium-Sized Companies and from the Corporate to the Individual Sector
c. Environment Influencing Corporate Profitability
Dangers of Ending Deflation Too Quickly

2. Outlook for the Economy in Fiscal 2004

Assumptions Underlying the Forecast
a. World Economy
b. Exchange Rates
c. Crude Oil Prices
d. Government Fiscal Policy
e. Monetary Policy
Economic Outlook for Fiscal 2004: Third Consecutive Year of Positive Growth, Movement into Adjustment Phase in the Second Half

3. Outlook by Demand Component

a. External Demand: The contribution of external demand will continue to be positive in the first half of fiscal 2004 but will have a negative influence in the latter half of fiscal 2004.

b. Corporate Sector: This sector will remain strong but reach a peak during fiscal 2004.

c. Employment and Income Environments: Major improvement is not expected, but the individual sector will show slight increases.

d. Government Spending: The decline in government public investment spending will continue, but government consumption expenditures will continue to make a positive contribution.

e. Prices: Deflationary pressures to persist

Revised Forecast for the Japanese Economy In Fiscal 2004: February 2004（英語版）

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